Growth Model Design project | for HEADOUT

About Headout:

Headout is an online platform(website, mobile app) for travellers to discover curated tours, excursions, day trips, and last-minute tickets to major tourist attractions, museums, shows and events in several global destinations. 

• Founded in 2015
• CEO: Varun Khona
• Headquartered in New York. Have 5 offices including 1 in Bengaluru
• Sector: Travel-tech, cross-border

Core value proposition of Headout:

• Curates the best experiences from across the globe so that you do not have to do the hard work 
• Caters to all kinds of tastes and preferences 
• Top-quality destinations at competitive prices

Current Goal of the company :

New market expansion - Headout believes in expanding with a 'supply-first' lens which essentially means that they solve for destinations (making new experiences functional and running) before customer acquisition in those markets.

Business model and stage of the company:

Marketplace model bringing together travellers and experience providers who are providing high-quality real life experiences from across the globe. 

Offering experiences in 180+ cities, Headout already has 30M+ customers.

Headout wants to achieve PMF in new markets say India, hence for the purpose of this project, I am taking the following as the NORTH STAR METRIC:

Activation Rate

Keeping the goal of the company in mind, I have taken 5 cities in a new market. 2 experiences in each city. To achieve PMF in this new market, we need to test these 10 experiences. Using these learnings in a new market we can start scaling.

Scaling in this context means increasing the no. of experiences available in the new market, followed by customer acquisition.

Growth Equation

%activation rate = No. of bookings / Website visits or App sessions

https://whimsical.com/nsm-headout-PU4JhJ8k9CadaZZ4YMi5Q7

Nuke Scenario

Since we launched in a new market and trying to achieve PMF, we do not have enough data to comment on retention and resurrection bookings.

Metrics

Below are some metrics using which growth model will be created. Since its a new market, taking the following assumptions.

• No. of bookings in the launch month Jan - 24 : 25
• Price of booking in each experience location is taken within the range INR 1800-300
• M-O-M growth in bookings : 7%
• Cost (revenue share away to local experience providers): 60%
• Transaction fee : 2%

Growth model

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Cg6nEywgA0XlsUud6DgrCk_6oQ08nfn-CgYGMsNgmKc/edit?gid=971492083#gid=971492083

• Taking 7% m-o-m growth as the target for number of bookings
• Taking 5% m-o-m growth as the target for app+website sessions
• Cumulative revenue at the end of 12 months is approx. 26lacs
• Net revenue is approx. 10lacs
• Key revenue drivers here are,

1. no. of bookings per month
2. Avg. revenue per booking